2006 predictions

1. Apple will ship two generations of iPods. The first new generation, released in April, will have a satellite receiver built-in. The second will have a low-power FM transmitter built-in.

2. Jason Calacanis will stay at AOL though Easter 2006, and then will resign to spend more time with his family. They are good people, but Jason is an entrepreneur, and AOL is a really big BigCo. After leaving, he’ll continue to blog. Engadget will become a Time-Warner print publication. They’ll briefly use Buzz Bruggeman as a stand-in for Calacanis, and then Chris Pirillo. None of them will have the charisma that Calacanis had. Pirillo will leave AOL to sub for Adam Curry on Sirius, who will take more and more time off from his podcast, and Pirillo’s ratings will eclipse the Podfather’s, who will retire to invent the next media revolution, in obscurity, all by himself.

3. SixApart’s servers will melt down in the first two weeks of the new year, and many times after that in 2006. WordPress.com will implement a one-click import of a TypePad site, just enter your username and password and click Submit. Come back in a few hours and your whole site will be there. Under tremendous pressure from users, SixApart will implement a one-click redirect of your old URL to the new site.

4. Google will make a deal with the Time-Warner movie companies, and start movies.google.com for on-demand distribution over the Internet. Google will learn to live with DRM. Their answer to iTunes will involve loose-coupled relationships with content companies, and a new product called Google Money, basically their version of Paypal with a twist, they will also invent a new currency called The Google, which trades against the dollar, the euro, the yen and the yuan. Many small countries in Africa, Latin America and south Asia adopt the Google as their national currency. The Google money website, money.google.com, will list the current Google stock price expressed in googles, of course. They will stop reporting sales and earnings, instead reporting Gross National Product and trade surpluses and deficits. When all this rolls out, Google’s share price crashes, and takes the real estate market in Santa Clara County with it. All of a sudden Dan Gillmor can afford a mansion in Atherton on his teacher’s salary at UC-Berkeley. He becomes Mike Arrington’s neighbor and starts a new subsidiary of TechCrunch.

5. RSS will continue on the growth vector it has been on for the last six years. There will be new applications for RSS as reading lists become widely supported in aggregators, and directories like Technorati produce content in readling list form. Podcasting will be a factor in the 2006 congressional elections in the US, the Democrats will use this medium more effectively than the Republicans at first, but it will quickly even out. There will be moves in Congress to pass laws viewing the use of podcasts as equivalent to commercials, but it will be impossible to place a monetary value on it. More and more RSS will be seen as an advertising medium in itself, like catalogs, newsletters and fact sheets; and less as an advertising-supported medium. The advertising networks that formed in 2005 will wither in 2006, and completely go away by 2007.

6. As 2006 draws to a close, for a fraction of an instant the attention of the entire web will focus on my Long Bet with Martin Nisenholtz. The attention will quickly dissipate as we realize that the blogging world wins by default because the archive of the New York Times is not accessible on Google.

7. The New York Times, Harvard University and Yahoo form the new World Outline Foundation, to create an upgrade for the Yahoo directory, with a permanent model of the knowledge of the human species, accessible openly in OPML format. Yahoo modifies their search engine to understand OPML as a native format. When the Times publishes an in-depth article on a subject, the reporter’s notes are organized as an outline and linked into the accumulated knowledge. An ambitious project among universities worldwide is launched, with Harvard’s leadership, to organize scholarly information in publicly accessible OPML. I draft a new coalesced specification for OPML and contribute it without compensation to the WOF.

8. Scoble will appear on Oprah. His book on corporate blogging will top all the best seller lists, his royalties will eclipse his Microsoft salary, but he’ll stay there, because it’s in his blood. Guy Kawasaki bleeds in six colors; in his heart Scoble wants to know where you want to go today. Scoble’s next book, for which he will receive a $2 million advance, will be a collaboration with Douglas Coupland entitled Blogserfs, about the blogging community at Microsoft. Shel Israel will collaborate on a book with Vint Cerf about the downfall of Google.

47 responses to this post.

  1. Posted by Jeff I. on December 24, 2005 at 2:49 am

    Man, you are Smokin’!

    Reply

  2. Yay! I can finally return to the bay area and afford a 2 rm TLC.

    BTW, I think you forgot the Skype-eBay module that automatically scans everything in my house and puts it on auction.

    Reply

  3. [...] その Caracanis の 2006年の人生までも予想しているのが Dave Winer で、なかなかに笑わせてくれる。「Six Apart のサーバが2006年最初の2週間が過ぎる前にメルトダウンを起こし、wordpress.com には TypePad からの Import ボタンが追加される」など。こんな記事をトップ5に載せる tech.memeorandum のアルゴリズムもどうかしている。しかし彼はいつの間に wordpress.com にアカウントを取ったのだ? [...]

    Reply

  4. Oustanding – Bravo!

    Reply

  5. “(…) Many small countries in Africa, Latin America and south Asia adopt the Google as their national currency (…)”

    We (Peru) are not THAT stupid… ;)

    Reply

  6. Alejandro…

    Many small countries in Africa, Latin America and south Asia, except Peru, adopt the Google as their national currency…

    ;->

    Reply

  7. Alejandro,
    That is because Dave Winer will be elected the President of Peru, currency of course is the “OPML.”

    Reply

  8. Finally! Some 2006 predictions that actually make sense… ;-)

    Merry Xmas!

    Reply

  9. Dave, I’d be interested to read your thoughts on the future/direction of OPML in 2006.

    Reply

  10. I think instead of satellite and FM (outmoded 20th century technology) Apple will go with WiFi in the iPod, enabling it to send and receive.

    Reply

  11. Ben, see #7.

    Reply

  12. A couple of other things I’m looking for from Apple –

    1. Front Row on the iPod and the iNTel Mac Mini – I have a picture of it on my weblog and I think that is the future.

    2. iTunes on the iPod – this browser will allow access to audio, podcasts, video, photos and text.

    3. Widgets. Widgets everywhere. From Apple in Dashboard, from Yahoo, from Google, and from Microsoft in Vista.

    4. The Macintosh nano – smaller than the Mac Mini, battery powered, integrated LCD display, WiFi.

    Reply

  13. Yeah, and Dave Winer will receive the first ever grammy for best singing while driving in a podcast.

    Reply

  14. Dave,
    Lately, aside from Clipmarks, a number of other solutions have been introduced that are aimed in one way or another at enabling people to bookmark specific parts of pages (instead of the entire page). Do you see this trend having legs?

    Reply

  15. ROFL :-)

    Fred

    Reply

  16. iPod and FM or Satellite Radio

    [Dave](http://blogs.uqbea

    Reply

  17. Posted by bren on December 25, 2005 at 1:11 am

    This is pretty neat – sattelite / FM radio.

    But… what’s the point?

    Reply

  18. Interesting predictions.

    #6 may already be starting- Nicholas Sarkozy (French Interior Minister and expected presidential candidate in 07) just did a fairly groundbreaking interview: the interviewer was a blogger, and the medium…podcasting!

    As far as I’ve heard, no other major politician in Europe has done this before.

    Have posted some links to the interview here:

    http://www.yannicklaclau.com/2005/12/new_europe_sark.html

    Reply

  19. oops, I meant prediction #5, not #6!

    (I’ll also throw in a question about the regulation of podcasting along the lines of commercial airtime. Politicians get this rationed in Europe because it’s a scarce resource; but there are no limits to the distribution potential of podcasting….so should it ever be regulated?)

    Reply

  20. The extra bonuspoint bet with the Scoble prediction is, “Will he do it alone, or with Shel or Maryam or son?”

    Reply

  21. Patrick will be on Oprah with Scoble, and he’ll explain that even though his Dad works at Microsoft, he likes Apple stuff. Everyone will think he’s cute, the camera catches Dad kicking him under the table, and everyone laughs a good-natured laugh. They invite Patrick back to be a regular on the show.

    Reply

  22. Um, does anyone here in the geek world even watch Oprah except me?

    Then you would know that ever since the Audrey we won’t see any bleeding edge stuff on the show unless there’s a personal element that completely dwarfs the tech. She doesn’t want to endorse something her audience won’t understand already, she wants to endorse something her audience knows in their hearts to already be true. Blogging is too much of a square peg topic for the show. Now, if the topic was how to convince your dh not to buy a certain hdtv system, that would get some traction!

    Reply

  23. I would have to agree with your first prediction. You know apple will find a way to get involved with this satellite stuff. Sirius and XM are the real deal.

    Reply

  24. LOL i hope the next peruvian president will be peruvian ;) and DON’T use a foreign currency as other countries in South America ;)

    Reply

  25. I’m trying to debate whether any of this seems unfeasable…
    It’s all looks to be so likely to happen!

    Reply

  26. [...] Dave’s WordPress Blog » 2006 predictions These are some great predictions for 2006. It will be very interesting to see if any or all of these predictions come true. (tags: dave+winer blog) [...]

    Reply

  27. [...] Another great top 10 is to be found on Dave’s WordPress Blog. He actually only gets to 8, but feel free to fill the gap with some of the nice ideas in the comments that could easily feature in his top 10. I especially like the Skype-Ebay module that scans everything in your house and puts it on auction [...]

    Reply

  28. [...] Dopo le previsioni tecnologiche di Calcanis e di Winer, create le vostre con questo utile generatore. [...]

    Reply

  29. [...] Dave’s WordPress Blog [...]

    Reply

  30. [...] It seems every pundit is releasing predictions for 2006. Some, such as Dave Winer’s are somewhere between prophetic and wacky, but the best I have found so far are Greg Linden’s on Geeking with Greg. I especially agree with these ones: Yahoo will double down on their bets in community and social networking, including buying at least two more startups working in the area. Results of their efforts will be mixed, popular among early adopters, but largely a dud for the mainstream. and: Tagging documents (My Web 2.0, del.icio.us, tag search of documents) will fail to attract mainstream interest. Tagging will continue to be popular for photos, videos, and other items with poor metadata. I think this might become the major story of Web 2.0 in 2006. The mainstream public, though more tech-savvy today than a few years back, will not see any use in tagging. Yahoo’s investments will buy much needed goodwill among the tech community, but nobody else will care. Have you asked somebody lately what ‘del.icio.us’ is? Was the answer: “You are, let’s go to my room?” If it was, good for you… Now let me add a few predictions of my own: RSS will become more and more mainstream.Google’s stock price will see some backlash sooner or later during the year, but it won’t impact business.Social bookmarking, tagging etc. will NOT become mainstream.Podcasting will continue to grow. Many will call for a name change. Podshow will take off as a major player in the podcasting AND media world.The first song will break out of the podsafe world and become a mainstream hit. Independent podcasters will face a steeper climb to break through as the old order solidifies its position.The Web 2.0 bubble will NOT burst in 2006, but will be fueled by a few more major GYM acquisitions.Wikipedia will be doing just fine, though it will face more public scrutiny (which is a good thing). maybe more later… technorati tags: predictions, dave winer, adam curry, wikipedia, 2006, RSS, delicious, last podcast, greg linden, geeking with greg, podshow [...]

    Reply

  31. [...] 9. Dave Winer – He’s slowly learning the meaning of snark and when he finally does, we’d like to see some link-love to thank us for lighting the way. [...]

    Reply

  32. [...] 1. When Oprah Winfrey conducts research for her Robert Scoble episode, she mishears something about a rumour about Microsoft or Google buying Opera. Thinking she herself may have suddenly become a Web 2.0 takeover target, she quickly decides to buy Opera herself, renames it as the Oprah browser, changes the colour scheme to lilac, and it quickly become the default browser choice for every female on the planet as well as the celebrity browser of choice. [...]

    Reply

  33. Is there any reason why Google wouldn’t out-and-out BUY Time/Warner? Think of the money they’d save on licensing fees alone….

    And I agree – movies.google.com is definitely coming. Google Video was just a beta, and Google’s got oodles of dark fiber, too.

    Reply

  34. Re the Google: I wrote a piece on just that scenario back in October

    http://jaycurrie.info-syn.com/?p=171

    Reply

  35. Posted by just me on January 2, 2006 at 4:40 am

    for sure wbush will die .and a war start in asia .big problem in syria and germany……apreciate that

    Reply

  36. Posted by just me on January 2, 2006 at 4:41 am

    that will happen this year 2006.for sure wbush will die .and a war start in asia .big problem in syria and germany……apreciate that

    Reply

  37. Posted by sok on January 4, 2006 at 1:33 am

    MY name is sok try ,Male,20year old ,single,Cambodian live in phnom penh.I know khmer ,chinese,french and little englis. I am available to(o) do on Saturday, Sunday and also on any Holiday ..
    Go(o)d Willing to be an actor (cinema?) for lead the world to in our (other) new (one) world order:
    -Tsunamis,terrorism, earthquakes,global warming, mudslides, tornadoes, hurricanes, avalanches, wildfires, explosions, Wars, Famines, Pestilences,poverty,pandemic..apocalypse is .

    salvation latter-day?

    Reply

  38. Dave,

    You’re a hoot! I don’t think you’re too far out, and I’m inclined to agree with you and Frederic that:
    # RSS will grow, become more and more mainstream.
    (This will take off when Reading Lists become a distinct possibility, which then explains why I think # Social bookmarking, tagging etc. will NOT become mainstream.
    (This, like any fad, will slowly die).

    # Podcasting will continue to grow.
    (This looks to be going mainstream).

    Won’t speculate about the rest but it does look as if Google Movies is going to happen.

    Reply

  39. I don’t know how I missed this when you first posted it. I agree with about 90% of it, however I predict 100% of it will happen. ( ;-{) >

    Reply

  40. [...] Dave’s 2006 predictions December 24, 2005 Many small countries in Africa, Latin America and south Asia adopt the Google as their national currency. The Google money website, money.google.com, will list the current Google stock price expressed in googles, of course. They will stop reporting sales and earnings, instead reporting Gross National Product and trade surpluses and deficits. When all this rolls out, Google’s share price crashes, and takes the real estate market in Santa Clara County with it. § [...]

    Reply

  41. [...] Quelques prédicateurs célèbres : Dave Winner Jason Calacanis Scobleizer Chris Pirillo [...]

    Reply

  42. [...] BTW, one of my 2006 predictions sort-of came true this week. “Jason Calacanis will stay at AOL though Easter 2006.” Okay, I was off by a few months. :-)  [...]

    Reply

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