I was in the audience yesterday when the one dramatic moment of the conference took place. Scoble was on stage. Mike Arrington was sitting to my right in the front row of the second section (on the right). Mike showed me a piece he was writing, and I gulped. It said Scoble was leaving Podtech and probably going to FastCompany to start a TV network for them. Since Scoble is my friend, I knew that there was some truth to this, but was disappointed to see it was coming out, esp at a moment when Scoble wouldn’t have a moment to think and consult with friends before formulating a response. HIs laptop screen was being projected as we watched him edit his comment on TechCrunch. At one point Mike asked if I thought he knew we could see what he was typing. I didn’t think he did.
Anyway, Scoble lets it all hang out. And somehow he gets away with it. What would kill most people just stings him, and he smiles through it all, in his bumbling Scoble-like way, and it always amazes me how he makes lemonade out of the lemons. This isn’t the optimal way to announce you’re leaving a company, and his deal with FC isn’t final yet. But somehow I think he’ll navigate this transition and come out in a better place after the dust settles.
I don’t know what Bebo is, I guess it’s a social network, they say it’s #3 in the USA, #1 in the UK, but they just did something that’s pretty likely to work, if it’s technically possible. They’re cloning Facebook so that their service will run Facebook apps. What this means, if they can pull it off, is that they won’t have to fight to get support from developers. That’s a big deal.
Google could have done this with OpenSocial. Watching the panel assembled by Marc Canter at LeWeb3, I was reminded of every tech conference I’ve been to for almost 30 years. Some big company sitting in the center, and lots of smaller ones sucking up to them, not daring to say what’s obvious, that the big company is only interested in limiting the growth of an upstart (not present on stage of course). That’s where the Fear comes in Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. We don’t say anything because we’re too scared to. Even the outspoken Marc Canter, who’s smart and has been around this block many times, doesn’t dare say what’s obvious.
Now Bebo decides to get in lockstep with Facebook, not Google. Of course! Facebook has the juice. But this is a dangerous place to be if Facebook doesn’t want them there, and being a big company, they probably don’t. The only value of having clones to FB is that it negates the threat from Google. Sometimes having clones is a good thing, but usually the clones take over the market. Witness MSIE and Netscape, and then Firefox. Compaq et al and IBM. dBASE and Fox. It’s possible to depose an installed leader if it’s possible to clone them. As a user and developer, I’d like to see FB be open to cloning. If I were a FB shareholder I’m not so sure.
One constituency that’s sure to like the existence of clones are Facebook developers. Without choice in platform vendors, they have nowhere to go when the sole vendor decides to take over their market. With a viable alternative, unless FB is incredibly aggressive and builds its competitive features so they can run on competitive platforms, at least developers will have a place to run their apps when FB encroaches.
Platforms are a game, like Risk, with rules and strategies. Google did not play the game wisely with OpenSocial. I chalk this up to inexperience on the part of the strategists. So far Facebook has been doing what’s needed to keep its dominant position. Bebo deciding to clone the Facebook API ratifies that position, it’s a gutsy move, but the best one available to them, and to other would-be Facebook competitors.
PS: The news is slow to reach Europe. Facebook said yesterday that they support what Bebo is doing. Very enthusiastically. That should be the end of OpenSocial.
I use it because it helps me keep in touch with people I want to be in touch with, without taking very much time. It serves a function that the links on Scripting News used to serve, but that was just a one-way thing. Now I get links and ideas from other people. It’s an equalizer, a playing field leveler. It’s useful the same way a cell phone is useful. Sure some conversations on cell phones might seem dull. So hang up. But don’t get rid of the phone (and certainly don’t make general statements about phones based on some people’s conversations).
As the cab was heading back to my hotel it turned down an avenue and there was the Arc. I grabbed the camera and got a movie as we approached the circle around it.
Phil Wolff on things for bloggers to do before they die.